When will We Crash? More Time and Price Analysis
TL;DR - Green this week, SPY possibly up to 297. Crash likely to begin between Monday, April 27th and Monday, May 5th, likely early after opening. SPY 220p 6/1
PART 1: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fzhs4d/when\_will\_we\_bottom\_out/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fzhs4d/when_will_we_bottom_out/)
PART 2 : [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g0sd44/what\_is\_the\_bottom/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g0sd44/what_is_the_bottom/)
PART 3: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g2enz2/why\_the\_printer\_must\_continue/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g2enz2/why_the_printer_must_continue/)
# Price Analysis
* Projection Levels are determined by the formula – P^(PN)(A, B, C) = (P^(B) – P^(A)) \* P^(N) \+ P^(C)
A, B, and C are swing points
286.25 is the 100%P and we have exceeded that.
100%P is the most important of all the projection percentages, as instruments will typically encounter some type of support or resistance when reaching it. It could yield either a temporary pullback or a true market inflection point, so price action must be focused on at this level. It is a price pattern objective for all swings.
* It is a potential target once any swing activates, but only time will reveal if it is a true terminal point. It is a good area to consider taking partial or total profits, however it may not be a good point to reverse unless an ABC swing is anticipated. This level may be the conclusion of a corrective swing. If 50% holds an instrument, leading to swing activation, then there is a higher probability that 100% will be a true market inflection point. This projection allows us a clue as to whether we are witnessing a true trend change or if a correction inside the previous trend is simply being completed. If this level is breached immediately without much price action occurring, then we can determine that the change in trend indicated by the swing is legitimate. It is the last line of defense for a market’s prior trend.
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* We are in the .618 Fibbonacci retracement, approaching the 78.6%R (SPY 296.47). Though .618R i snot very important, 78.6% is as reciprocal retracement memory occurs here. Once this occurs on a positive range, a new negative range will be created off of the range’s discrete terminal high point and will have the same retracement. May foreshadow tight trading ranges in the time-period. Skittish sellers for positive slopes and buyers for negative slopes will perceive that a discrete has been reached, leaving room for a massive sell-off/buy. Often causes triangle formations.
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# Technical Indicators
Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
* VIX: is currently 38.2. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear.
* RSI: currently at 73.6. It is the most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
# Time Analysis
Weekly Lows for the last five weeks: Mon, Mon, Wed, Wed, Tue (Lows do not tend to occur on Thursday and Friday)
Monthly Lows for the last year:
3/23, 2/28, 1/27, 12/3, 11/1, 10/2, 9/3, 8/5, 7/1, 6/3, 5/31, 4/1
Days: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 23, 27, 27, 31
Possible Monthly Lows: 4/27 (Monday)
5/2, 5/27
6/2, 6/27
7/2, 7/27
8/2, 8/27
9/2, 9/27
10/2, 10/27
OBLIGATORY: It should be noted that I am no expert by any means, I’m actually quite new to this, it is just an elementary analysis of patterns in price and time. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not advice for a person to enter trades upon.
Originally posted on Reddit. Browse posts from 2020.