Reddit reply in r/wallstreetbets: When will we bottom out? — April 12, 2020 | Ali Shukri Amin

There are two components to this TA. The first is Time, the second, which I have not done yet, is Price. Do not conflate the two. This post is about Time only. All it tells you is "when" a very specific thing will happen, which is the yearly low.

There is room for SPY to go upwards, but only for a limited time. If SPY continues to go upwards beyond a particular Fibonacci retracement, all of our projections are tossed out of the window.

That being said, technically and fundamentally speaking, there is no way that a recovery can occur. If a "recovery" occurs, we have a much bigger issue than the market.

The time to buy puts is when they will be at their cheapest. As the price gets closer to its objective on 11/4 the premiums will be lower, yes. However, the options contracts will become more expensive as SPY reaches its price objective.

We can evaluate when the puts should be placed when we discuss price in the next post. However, price is significantly more complicated and difficult to implement than Time. Almost every TA you see here is on price analysis, with charts, etc.

As for now, just keep 11/4 in your mind. You could not trade till then and make money, if you implemented a wise strategy. For example, you know after this date to place calls. Or, to place calls with expiry after this date until the end of the year. You also know that this is the date to pick up stocks for long term investments.

Knowing when we will bottom out is extremely powerful in many ways, even without knowing price. Once we see the next downturn in the market, which may be as early as this week, we can be confident in our long term shorts.

Once we determine what price SPY is intending to reach, we can begin taking options which might seem ordinarily illogical, but which we know are moving in that direction, with confidence.

The market is reacting based on lagging data of past prices whereas we are able to confidently predict when SPY will reach a very specific price, as discussed in the next post. So, as almost no one is thinking in that way, we can buy values along the spectrum downwards to that number.

That also helps individuals that need to build capital until they can make those more expensive plays.